Market
Basis for Company Operations
The
Wall Street Journal reports that of the approximately $2.5 trillion
in sub-prime loans made during the last few years, $1.5 trillion of
them were made between 2004 and 2006. About one-third (1/3) of those
outstanding loans reset with higher interest rates in 2007, and
nearly two-thirds (2/3) are scheduled to reset in 2008.
As
these mortgages reset to significantly higher interest rates both
owner-occupants and investors have had to struggle to make the
higher payments. They have often have been unable to do so. As a
result there are a historically high and increasing number of
non-performing trust deed secured mortgage notes and of foreclosed
single-family homes owned by banks in their "Real Estate Owned"
(hereafter "REO")
portfolios.
(See Wall Street Journal Article, front page, October 11, 2007.)
Mortgages
Held in
Large
Pools
Most
real estate mortgages are held in "pools" typically ranging from
several hundred million dollars to well over one billion dollars in
size. Even in today's credit market most all of the mortgages held
in those large mortgage pools continue to perform well, with the
borrowers making regular monthly payments.
Nonetheless non-performing mortgages are estimated, as of the date
of this memorandum, to be at least one out of every thirty one
mortgage notes, with that number expected to increase throughout
2008 and into the early months of 2009. When a mortgage pool
contains a large number of REO properties it greatly reduces the
marketability of that particular pool, reducing its overall value
substantially. Moreover, significant additional cash reserves must
be held against all REO properties by a financial institution that
owns and controls a mortgage pool with REO assets in it.
For all of the above reasons banks and other financial institutions
with non-performing notes and REO portfolios often liquidate them
through a variety of avenues, including bulk sales at very large
discounts.
Bank
Efforts
to
List and
Sell
Foreclosed
Properties
with
Brokers
In
normal markets banks and financial institutions managing large
mortgage pools will most often list properties acquired because of
foreclosure with local real estate brokers. Those financial
institutions usually establish an office called a "work-out
department" staffed by mid-level bank officers who are instructed to
work within a rigid set of parameters while attempting to negotiate
and close the sale of those properties, one-by-one, to individual
buyers. Their mandate is to obtain the highest possible price they
can for each REO property file that crosses their desk. Such bank
officers are typically limited by written bank policy to giving a
maximum discount of between 5% and 10% of the then-current value of
the property to facilitate the sale of any particular property.
Moreover they are (a) never authorized to carry any financing on
behalf of the bank, (b) are limited by written bank policy as to the
amount of closing costs they can credit to an otherwise qualified
buyer and (c) are typically required to pay below industry standard
commissions to real estate brokers assisting them with the sales.
In addition, where an individual property owner will usually respond
to a purchase offer immediately and then work diligently with the
buyer and his real estate agent to close the sale, bank officers in
work-out departments were already well-know for their slow responses
prior to the credit crisis, and for the slow speed at which even
very good transactions progress. Not surprisingly, with so much more
work crossing their desks their already slow response times have
generally slowed even further.
As
a result of the above, and because of the large and increasing
numbers of foreclosures now and anticipated well into next
year, bank REO inventories are climbing dramatically. The board of
directors of affected banks and financial institutions are therefore
taking extraordinary steps to liquidate their REO inventory,
including both the pre-foreclosure sale of non-performing mortgage
notes as well as selling REOs in bulk.
Board
Level Decisions for Bulk Liquidations
When
REO decisions about liquidating non-performing mortgages and REOs
move from mid-level bank managers making "one-at-a-time" decisions
to the board of directors of the financial institution holding those
assets the parameters change substantially, becoming far more
favorable to buyers. This is because liquidating non-performing
assets significantly increases the market value of the remaining
mortgages in any given mortgage pool. Regarding REOs, liquidating in
bulk quantities substantially reduces the amount of cash reserves a
bank is required to hold against them, and allows the bank to put
the money received back to work in their normal business model. With
both non-performing mortgage notes and REOs, the loss experienced by
taking these steps, as a percentage of the portfolio value, is
relatively small. Moreover the losses at that point have already
been written off. By selling non-performing assets those already
recognized losses are promptly mitigated by a cash infusion.
The board of directors of any bank is never interested in selling
such non-performing assets "one-at-a-time", however. When such
decisions are made at that level they typically want to sell them
quickly, in large quantities for cash, in amounts of tens of
millions of dollars at a time.
Cash
Requirements, Discounts and Usual Buyers
When
decisions are made at the board level of a financial institution to
REOs in bulk, residential properties will often be liquidated at
discounts of 30% to 50% below current market value, or more.
Non-performing mortgage notes are often liquidated at even greater
discounts. The buyers are normally other large financial
institutions and very sophisticated wealthy investors. Smaller
investors are not typically able to participate in these large bulk
sale liquidations. However our company is set up to participate in
this market. We have the the potential as well, although there are
no guarantees, to participate in the market described in the
paragraph below.
Extreme
Discounts for Government Backed Loan REO Liquidations
From
time
to time a government backed portfolio of non-performing notes and
REOs may be liquidated at extremely high discounts, hypothetically
as much as 70% (or more) below current market values, as
happened during the late 1980's when the Resolution Trust
Corporation was actively liquidating the properties of failed
savings and loan companies. These are usually extremely large pools
of trust deed secured mortgage notes or REOs, with market values as
much as a billion dollars or more, all liquidated at one time.
Buyers in such cases are usually large financial institutions along
with just a very few, very wealthy investors. The profit potential
in them is extraordinarily high because these large pools are
immediately broken up and re-sold to smaller investment groups for
cash at discounts more ordinarily available in the market, i.e. 30%
to 50% below current value, with the potential for short term
financing from a major financial institution to help leverage those
already significant profits. Although there can be no guarantees and
there are none, our company may have an opportunity to participate
at this level as well |